As we approach the final months of the 2025 financial year, many businesses are facing significant challenges – both domestically and globally, which will require close consideration and, potentially, active management going forward.
Severe weather events, including the recent cyclone on Australia’s east coast, have caused widespread disruption. Globally, markets remain volatile, driven by ongoing trade and tariff tensions between the United States (US) and China – to which Australia’s economy is particularly exposed – as well as the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
Unfortunately, there are few signs that this volatility will ease in the near term, and it’s likely to have continuing, wide-ranging implications across multiple industries. In agribusiness, price fluctuations and shifting demand are affecting cash flows and lending, while in the property and construction sectors, inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions are taking a toll.
Many businesses are already feeling the impact. As a result, investor sentiment and activity levels are under pressure, with flow-on effects evident in currency movements.
Sector impacts
- The National Farmer’s Federation has raised strong concerns about the impact of international tariffs on Australian producers, warning of potential disruptions to export access and profitability.
- Recent ABC coverage highlighted growing fears of a global recession if tariff tensions continue to escalate.
- Cotality analysis indicates that tariffs on imported building materials could increase new home construction costs by 4-6%, squeezing margins for developers and worsening affordability.
- CBRE noted that uncertainty around tariffs may affect investment decisions and financing for commercial projects.
Interest rate outlook
Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next moves on interest rates will be critical.
Inflation is easing and economic growth is slowing and, while the full impact of the US’s tariffs stance is yet to play out, it is widely expected the RBA will make several rate cuts over the next financial year to address reducing inflation and improve economic growth.
While this could lift consumer spending and support business investments by freeing up disposable income, a weaking Australian dollar, which typically follows interest rate reductions, could pose challenges – making exports more expensive, while increasing input costs for businesses. Balancing these forces will be key.
Planning ahead in a changing landscape
The Federal election has added another layer of uncertainty, and the months ahead are likely to remain challenging.
As you plan for the new financial year, I encourage you to remain vigilant – adaptability is key to navigating uncertainties – and to reach out to your Relationship Manager, especially if you foresee financial pressures ahead.
Mozo Business Banking Awards
I’m proud to share that BCU Bank has been recognised in the 2025 Mozo Experts Choice Awards, winning in the Small Business Exceptional Everyday Account category for our Business Basic Access Account.
This award reflects our dedication to supporting small businesses with fee-free, everyday banking solutions—and reinforces how our customer-first mindset continues to set us apart.
Supporting our agribusiness community
As part of our commitment to regional Australia, we’re proud to sponsor Primex, one of the country’s leading primary industry field days. It’s just one of the ways we’re supporting the future of Australian agribusiness. I know the team is looking forward to catching up with many of you there.
Banking solutions to help your business thrive
To support you during these uncertain times, lean on our smart, simple business transaction accounts that work as hard as you do.
- No monthly account-keeping fees (on Business Basic Access and Business iSaver)
- Easy access to your funds online and in-branch
- Integration with accounting software
- Designed to support day-to-day business cash flow
Plus, explore our Boss Saver account. A smart way to earn more on your savings – no hoops, just competitive rates.
Talk to your Relationship Manager to find out which solution is the right fit for your needs.
Sincerely,
Jacqueline Ryan
Chief Business Banking Officer